Is Climate Changing in Mindanao?

Abstract / Excerpt:

Twenty years ago, climate change was only a peripheral concern of a handful of people mostly made up of scientists and environmentalists. It was actually broached much earlier by a Swedish chemist named Svante Arrhenius who in 1896 proposed that changes in carbon dioxide(CO2) concentrations could affect surface temperatures (Arrhenius, 1896). He hypothesized then that a doubling of CO2 levels could increase surface temperature by as much as 5 °C. Current prognoses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international body of several hundred scientists and researchers, put this so-called climate sensitivity factor between1.5 to 4.5 degrees (IPCC, 2001). Present levels of CO2 have not yet doubled since the time of Arrhenius who at that time conjectured that it would take about 3000 yrs for CO^ to double from its concentration then, given the emission rates of his time. With today's current pace of global growth however, CO, is expected to double pre-industrial age levels within the century. The latest IPCC climate forecast for the 21st century states that global surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4 to 5.8 °C (IPCC, 2001)

Such an increase in temperature, if it were to happen, would be unprecedented i > the last400,000 yrs of climate history. The prognosis is supported by hundreds of climate simulations run on sophisticated global circulation models (GCM's) that have been made to work on various CO, level scenarios in the 21st' century (IPCC, 2000). Here it is important to note that CO^ levels are nonetheless projected to increase relentlessly into this century, at levels likewise never seen by the planet in the last 400,000 yrs. It is a dangerous experiment we are conducting, something we cannot replicate in the clinical confines of a laboratory.

Full Text

Twenty years ago, climate change was only a peripheral concern of a handful of people mostly made up of scientists and environmentalists. It was actually broached much earlier by a Swedish chemist named Svante Arrhenius who in 1896 proposed that changes in carbon dioxide(CO2) concentrations could affect surface temperatures (Arrhenius, 1896). He hypothesized then that a doubling of CO2 levels could increase surface temperature by as much as 5 °C. Current prognoses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international body of several hundred scientists and researchers, put this so-called climate sensitivity factor between1.5 to 4.5 degrees (IPCC, 2001). Present levels of CO2 have not yet doubled since the time of Arrhenius who at that time conjectured that it would take about 3000 yrs for CO^ to double from its concentration then, given the emission rates of his time. With today's current pace of global growth however, CO, is expected to double pre-industrial age levels within the century. The latest IPCC climate forecast for the 21st century states that global surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4 to 5.8 °C (IPCC, 2001)

Such an increase in temperature, if it were to happen, would be unprecedented i > the last400,000 yrs of climate history. The prognosis is supported by hundreds of climate simulations run on sophisticated global circulation models (GCM's) that have been made to work on various CO, level scenarios in the 21st' century (IPCC, 2000). Here it is important to note that CO^ levels are nonetheless projected to increase relentlessly into this century, at levels likewise never seen by the planet in the last 400,000 yrs. It is a dangerous experiment we are conducting, something we cannot replicate in the clinical confines of a laboratory.

Info
Source JournalAgham Mindanaw
Journal VolumeAgham Mindanaw Vol. 3
AuthorsJose Ramon T. Villarin, Francia B. Avila
Page Count12
Place of PublicationDavao City
Original Publication DateJanuary 1, 2006
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