Panel Data Estimation of Crime Rates in the Philippines


This study used panel data of index crime rates for the 13 regions of the Philippines over the period 1983-2000 to analyze the determinants of crime rates in the country using the constant coefficient model . As different types of index crimes are likely to be influenced by different factors, the total index crime rate was disaggregated into three parts: (a) crimes against person (murder, homicide, and physical injury); (b) crimes against property (robbery and theft); and (c) rape. The data reveal that, of the potential factors used to associate the fluctuations of the recorded crime rates (social, economic, criminal justice, and demographic factors), the economic factors are the robust determinants of crime rates. That is, the more stable the economy is, the lesser the crime. The study highlighted the following findings: The determinant to explain the variation of crimes against person per 100,000 inhabitants are: (1) per capita gross regional domestic product; (2) average income of the people in urban and rural; (3) consumer price index; (4) cohort survival rate in elementary education. For the crimes against property, the determinants are: (1) per capita gross regional domestic product; (2) income inequality proxied by gini coefficient; (4) cohort survival rate in secondary education. There are only two significant determinants of crime rate on rape incidence: unemployment rate ad population density.

Source InstitutionNational Statistical Coordination Board
Source URL
Page Count11
Place of PublicationMandaluyong City
Original Publication DateOctober 4, 2004