Modeling of electricity consumption of Davao del Sur Using seasonal arima

Abstract:

In Mindanao region of the Philippines, the main so urce of electricity is the hydro power generated by the National Power Corporat ion (NPC) through the inflows of water from Lake Lanao’s Agus River in Iligan City a nd Pulangi River in Bukidnon. For 20 years, hydropower comprises at least 90 percent of power source in the region. However, that percentage is depleting almost every year due to many reasons. One is the reducing capacity of the generators of NPC due to damages that need repairs and replacement but not acted upon. Second, the increasing demand of electricity which resulted to sourcing other form of power generation such as diesel-fed and coal-fed power plants because the NPC did not build new hydro plants. Lastly, another big factor is the climate change. The weather condition alters every year where most of the times it is abnormal like the global warming that is currently happening. El Niño that brings droughts is one of the effects of this phenomenon. This could hardly affect the economic and agriculture conditions of specific regions. In fact, from last quarter of 2009 up to second quarter of 2010, the whole Mindanao has experienced a power crisis due to El Niño which brought the Lake Lanao and Pulangi River into critical levels that forced the NPC to shut down some of its power generators and i ssued curtailment to power distribution utilities – the ones that deliver power to residences, commercial and industrial establishments, which then resulted to rotating brownouts in all areas in Mindanao region including Digos City and other municipalities of Davao del Sur (Sta.Cruz, Matanao, Bansalan, Magsaysay, Hagonoy, P adada, Kiblawan, Sulop, Malalag, Sta. Maria, Malita, Jose Abad Santos, Don Marcelino and Sarangani), which power is solely distributed by Davao del Sur Electr ic Cooperative (DASURECO).

Info
Source InstitutionNational Statistical Coordination Board
Source URLhttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/ru11/MSC/pdf%20of%20papers/maranga.pdf
Page Count12
Place of PublicationQuezon City
Original Publication Date
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